Key Stats: Most 20 year old men spend their time chasing women and calling older friends to pickup alcohol for them. Jason Heyward is not your common 20 year old. He spent his time last season hitting .277 with an .849 OPS, 18 HR, 83 runs, 72 RBIs and 11 SB which was one of the greatest seasons by a 20 year old player in major league history.
Heyward is one of the most polarizing players in the top 100 rankings. Some players are touting him as a top-20 pick based believing he has 30+ HR power and 20+ SB speed. Others have him just inside the top 100 believing he’ll fall victim to the sophomore slump.
Skeptics Say: Plenty of players have suffered from the "sophomore slump "after productive rookie seasons. However, unless there is a specific reason why a player might struggle, it’s probably not prudent to assume the player won’t improve in his second year. Heyward has quickly bounced back from any mini-slumps he has endured to-date, so I see no reason why he’ll struggle in 2011.
Skeptics will also point out that while Heyward has the natural raw power, he doesn’t have the swing to hit 30 homers. Heyward has never gotten a lot of loft on his swing as evidenced by his 55.1% groundball rate. Alex Rodriquez had the highest GB ratio of any 30 HR hitter last year and his GB ratio was only 46.0%. However, it’s not unheard of for young hitters to develop more loft in their swing as they get older. Robinson Cano is a great example of this.
Projection: He’s still a few years away from being a superstar, but he’ll still be very good this year.
104 R 24 HR 82 RBI 15 SB .300 AVG .910 OPS