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2012 Fantasy Baseball Undervalued OF
View the RotoChamp OF Rankings and Projections
The following is a list of players that we think are undervalued in 5x5 standard leagues based on their ADP (courtesy of MockDraftCentral).
These are the players we would target on draft day. We try to show players that will go early, middle, and late to give you the most flexibility when picking at this position. We also indicate at which pick you should start thinking
about picking the player.
Hunter Pence (early rounds, 45+) - Pence has been one of the most reliable fantasy OFs for the last few years, giving consistent 5 category production. He's at the peak of the aging curve and
now plays for a much stronger lineup in Philly than he did with Houston. This should help his counting stats like runs and RBIs. While he doesn't have the fantasy sex appeal of Jay Bruce,
Pence gets the job done year after year. His batting average (.313) was fueled by luck (xBA of .287), so don't expect another .300+ season. However, if he falls into your lap in the 5th or 6th round, snag him.
Michael Morse (early-mid rounds, 80+) - There seems to be a trend of guys being undervalued the year following a breakout season from nowhere. Last year, Jose Bautista was that guy when people just
didn't trust his 2010 numbers. This year it appears Morse is being overlooked. He's projected to have top 55 value, but is only going 81st in recent mock drafts. If your league isn't buying into his 2011
performance and lets him drop too far, consider making this 30 HR guy a part of your OF.
Nick Markakis (mid rounds, 100+) - Markakis has played 157+ games the last 5 years, though he could be in danger of breaking that streak after abdominal surgery this
winter. He's ahead of schedule in his recovery and should be ready to go by Opening Day. Though he seems to have been around forever, Markakis is only 28 and reaching his prime, even though
his numbers have declined since his stellar 2007 season when he hit 23 HRs and stole 18 bases. His xBA was a very impressive .312 in 2012 and we expect a pretty good year. Currently going around 120
in mock drafts, Markakis could bust the top 50 this year and that means huge value if you can get him anywhere beyond the 100th pick.
Logan Morrison (mid rounds, 135+) - LoMo got demoted to AAA last year for tweeting. Perhaps a little too outspoken for his own good, the internet age got the best of Morrison in 2011. With
Ozzie Guillen as his new manager, we don't see any social networking problems in 2012. LoMo was one of the unluckiest players last year, posting an actual average 39 points below his xBA. Expect him to have a
huge bounceback in average while continuing to post 25+ HR power. The Marlins are looking pretty stacked after making a bunch of offseason moves and Morrison should benefit by seeing
an increase in his runs/RBIs. He's being hugely undervalued in mock drafts (150+), despite having top 80 value. We will be targeting him in all of our draft this year.
Torii Hunter (mid-late rounds, 160+) - Old guys don't get much love in fantasy baseball circles and never make a 'Sleeper' list. There's the anticipation that an aging
player can't provide good value and that often sends someone like Hunter plummeting down the ADP lists. Hunter was the 91st most valuable fantasy player last year, yet is going around pick
170 in mock drafts. Why the huge drop? The guy was actually unlucky last year, posting an xBA (.284) much better than his actual average (.262). While others are drafting underperformers like
Austin Jackson during the later rounds, we suggest you go with 'old' reliable Torii Hunter.
Late Round Flyers
Seth Smith (OAK)
- Smith's power will be somewhat hurt moving from Colorado to Oakland, but it will be offset by increased playing time and a better spot in the middle of Oakland's lineup.
Not only has Smith showed power in the past, but he also showed us some wheels with 10 steals last year. Mock Drafts have him being taken in the 20th round in 12-man leagues, yet he should
provide much more value than his late spot would indicate.
Mike Carp (SEA)
- Carp is going undrafted in many leagues this season, but he's penciled into the cleanup spot for the Mariners this year. In less than 300 ABs, Carp hit 12 HRs in 2011.
Steamer, ZIPS, FanGraphs, and RotoChamp all project at least 20 HRs. While he strikes out a little too much, he's a steal for somebody that you can probably get with your last pick.
Yonder Alonso (SD)
- We've also mentioned him as a 1B sleeper, but he should be eligible at OF, also. Alonso's long term fantasy hit took a little bit of a hit when he was traded
to the spacious Petco from the band box in Cincinnati. His future is a middle of the order, 25 HR guy with a decent batting average. Will he do it this year?
Probably not, but 18-20 HRs is within range and the upside is there.
2012 Sleepers - C
2012 Sleepers - 1B
2012 Sleepers - 2B
2012 Sleepers - SS
2012 Sleepers - 3B
2012 Sleepers - OF
2012 Sleepers - Pitchers